Signs of a recovery in global steel demand will not appear until 2027. According to the latest Short Range Outlook by World Steel Association (worldsteel), worldwide consumption of finished steel products will remain essentially flat in 2026, at 1.722 billion tonnes (-0.1% compared with 2025). Growth of 1.7% is instead expected in 2027, to 1.752 billion tonnes.
Compared with the April publication, the association has lowered its estimates: moderate growth is no longer expected for 2026, while next year’s projected increase has been cut by half a percentage point. As Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chairman of worldsteel’s Economics Committee, pointed out, “the trajectory outlined a few months ago remains valid, but the expected recovery is proving slower and more gradual than we had anticipated.”
The revision, according to a statement, is almost entirely due to the contraction in Chinese demand. Excluding China, global steel demand is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026, to 942.1 million tonnes, and by 4% in 2027, to 979.7 million. However, the 14.3 million tonne increase expected outside China would be almost entirely offset by the 15.9 million tonne decline in the Chinese market.
In Europe, 2026 will still be marked by persistent weakness: apparent steel demand in the European Union and United Kingdom combined is expected to fall by 0.3%, to 146.3 million tonnes, before rising by 3.1% in 2027, to 150.8 million. For the Old Continent, worldsteel has revised its 2026 forecasts downward by 1.5 percentage points. A more significant improvement is expected from 2027, thanks to investment in infrastructure and defence, a recovery in real household incomes, and civil engineering projects linked to energy and rail networks.
For Germany, by contrast, the outlook is positive already in 2026, with demand growth of 3.8%, to just over 30 million tonnes. In 2027 the increase is expected to rise to 6%, bringing consumption to around 32 million tonnes.
Advanced economies are expected to post increases of 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. The recovery in industrial activity should strengthen mainly next year, supported by investment tied to artificial intelligence, defence and the energy transition, but it would remain limited compared with historical levels.
In the United States, consumption is expected to grow by 2% in 2026 (to 92.7 million tonnes) and by 1.5% in 2027 (to 94.1 million). More modest recoveries are expected for Japan (+0.9% in 2026 and +1.7% in 2027) and South Korea (+1.8% and +1.3%), both still well below the demand levels seen before their recent contractions.
In China, the world’s largest steel market, demand is forecast to fall by 2% in 2026, to 780.1 million tonnes, followed by a further 1% decline in 2027, to 772.3 million. India, meanwhile, continues its run and remains the most dynamic of the major markets: demand is expected to rise by 7.9% in 2026, to 172.4 million tonnes, and by 8% in 2027, to 186.2 million.
Overall growth for emerging and developing economies (excluding China) is estimated at 1.9% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027.
Among the main uncertainties in the international outlook is the continuing conflict in the Middle East, which has sharply worsened regional prospects. For the region, worldsteel forecasts a 13.9% drop in demand in 2026, followed by an 8.8% recovery in 2027. The revision is particularly pronounced for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, where consumption is expected to decline by around 11% in 2026. The 11.3% rebound forecast for 2027 assumes of improved security conditions and a normalisation of supply chains.
Finally, the outlook remains positive for the ASEAN-5 countries, with overall growth estimated at 5.2% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Vietnam stands out, where demand is expected to increase by 12% in 2026, reaching 29.5 million tonnes, driven mainly by construction activity and public investment.
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